Ipsos poll says Greens will unseat Tories in North Herefordshire

The poll published yesterday (June 18) by Ipsos, one of several to use a technique called MRP to drill down into likely local outcomes, predicts the Greens’ Ellie Chowns will take 36 per cent of the North Herefordshire vote, seeing off the Conservative incumbent Sir Bill Wiggin on 30 per cent.

This is at sharp variance with a Survation poll earlier this month, also employing MRP, which forecast a narrow Tory hold over Labour, with the Greens trailing in fourth.


Ipsos predicts the Greens will also take Bristol Central and Waveney Valley on the Norfolk/Suffolk border, where the party’s co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay respectively are standing, but losing to Labour in Brighton Pavilion, the party’s fourth target seat nationally.

“This poll confirms what we’ve been hearing from local people all over North Herefordshire: it will be Green or Conservative here on July 4,” Dr Chowns said.

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Sir Bill has held North Herefordshire with a margin of over 50 per cent in each of the last six elections since he first took the seat in 2005.

Ipsos predicts the county’s other constituency, Hereford and South Herefordshire, will be a “toss-up” between Labour and the Conservatives, giving the incumbent Jesse Norman a 1 per cent lead over Labour’s Joe Emmett.

Survation’s earlier poll had said Labour would take the seat by a 2.5 per cent margin, while a YouGov poll around the same time gave Mr Norman a 4 per cent lead.

Ipsos predicts the Conservatives will crash to just 115 seats nationally, with Labour taking an unprecedented 453.

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